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Enrollment Projections and Neighborhood Data presentation 10-02-17
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS & NEIGHBORHOOD DATA ANALYSIS 2017 1 COMPARISON DATA 855 STUDENTS 341 PYP ~ 371 MYP ~ 143 DP 831 Students 2015-2016 834 Students 2016-2017 855 Students 2017-2018 Primary Boundary 198 247 240 Grandparents 16 22 20 Permits 24 7 17 Founders 4 4 4 Extended Boundary 480 508 487 Former Westlake Residents 37 35 30 Faculty and Staff 63 57 57 2 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATE ANALYSIS, CONT. 3 Current Enrollment Conditions Neighborhood Total Number of Lots No. of Built or Permitted Lots Vacant Lots Enrolled Students 17/18 Glenwyck 84 84 0 62 Granada 84 44 40 28 Mahotea Boone 14 14 0 6 Stagecoach Hills 47 41 6 16 Terra Bella 28 23 5 12 Vaquero 295 258 37 101 Wyck Hill Estates 13 11 2 10 Other 43 35 8 46 Subtotal 608 510 98 281 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATE ANALYSIS, CONT. 4 Predicted Conditions Neighborhood Enrolled Students No. of Built or Permitted Lots Actual Calculated Multiplier Enrollment Study Multiplier of (.70) Built or Permitted Lots Variation Glenwyck 62 84 0.74 59 3 Granada 28 44 0.64 31 -3 Mahotea Boone 6 14 0.43 10 -4 Stagecoach Hills 16 41 0.39 29 -13 Terra Bella 12 23 0.52 16 -4 Vaquero 101 258 0.39 181 -80 Wyck Hill Estates 10 11 0.91 8 2 Other 46 35 1.31 25 21.5 Subtotal 281 510 0.67 357 -76 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATE ANALYSIS, CONT. 5 Predicted Future Conditions Neighborhood No. of Built or Permitted Lots Estimated No. of School Age Children (Based on Built/Permitted Lots Glenwyck 84 90 Granada 44 47 Mahotea Boone 14 15 Stagecoach Hills 41 44 Terra Bella 23 25 Vaquero 258 276 Wyck Hill Estates 11 12 Other 35 37 Subtotal 510 546 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATE ANALYSIS, CONT. 6 Predicted Future Conditions Neighborhood Number of Lots Predicted/Estimated Number of School Age Children (Based on Total Number of Lots) Glenwyck 84 90 Granada 84 90 Mahotea Boone 14 15 Stagecoach Hills 47 50 Terra Bella 28 30 Vaquero 295 316 Wyck Hill Estates 13 14 Other 43 46 Subtotal 608 651 39 74 140 173 197 130 167 194 242 278 279 228 255 281 236 255 282 320 374 440 508 578 649 722 232 243 255 270 287 306 329 355 384 418 128 165 153 164 204 210 201 211 221 233 245 257 271 284 299 230 283 338 335 287 311 338 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SDS Data with Westlake Enrollment Westlake Residents High Growth Moderate Growth Low Growth Westlake Residents / Employees Low High Growth Westlake Residents Moderate Growth Westlake Residents & Employees 7 “LEAVERS” ANALYSIS 8 Withdrew (Total Student Population) Didn't Return (NS)Totals 2012 41 26 67 2013 28 38 66 2014 18 54 72 2015 36 25 61 2016 39 26 65 2017 32 57 89 “LEAVERS” ANALYSIS 9 Total Westlake Residents Enrolled Westlake Resident Withdrawal Withdrawals by Percentage of Residents Enrolled Withdrawals by Percentage of Total Withdrawals 2012 194 10 5%15% 2013 242 13 5%20% 2014 278 25 9%35% 2015 279 16 6%26% 2016 228 24 11%37% 2017 269 35 13%39% 2018 281