HomeMy WebLinkAboutBarnett Shale presentationTinker, 2008
Bureau of Economic Geology
Jackson School of Geosciences
The University of Texas at Austin
Scott W. Tinker
A Brief Look at Natural Gas
and the Barnett Shale
Tinker, 2008
Unconventional Natural Gas
Barnett Shale
Outline
Tinker, 2008 Global Energy Demand and GDP
After: Koonin, 2008
1980-2004
~3 billion
people
Tinker, 2008
87% fossil
fuels today
Conventional Oil
Natural Gas
Data from EIA 2007
US Energy Mix
Coal
Uranium
Transportation
Heat
Electricity
Tinker, 2008
1800 1855 1910 1965 2020
An
n
u
a
l
U
s
e
(
Q
u
a
d
s
)
1
0.1
10
100
Electricity’s Role
Total
U. S. Energy
After Huber and Mills, 2005.
Data: EIA, Annual Review, 2003. US Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the US Colonial Ties
t 1970
Energy
used
to produce
electricity
45Q
Electricity will play an ever
greater role in the energy
end use mix.
Tinker, 2008 Electricity Options
•Efficiency
–Fuel, lighting, electronics, insulation
–Challenge: Rebound effect
•Natural Gas
–Abundant, reliable, price volatility, and cleaner
–Challenges: Global deliverability (LNG) and Access
•Coal
–Abundant, reliable, cheap and dirty
–Challenge: Sequestration (IGCC w/CCS), financing, public perception
•Nuclear
–Abundant, reliable, moderate price and cleaner
–Challenges: Waste disposal, security, public perception
•Alternatives
–Cleaner, less reliable and more expensive
–Challenge: Capacity impacts cost and reliability
Tinker, 2008
Tinker Forecast
Demand Forecast
1.25% annual demand growth
Historical Data: EIA October 2007: Forecasts: Tinker, 2008
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gl
o
b
a
l
E
n
e
r
g
y
C
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
(
q
u
a
d
s
)
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydroelectric Nuclear
Biomass, Geothermal, Solar & Wind
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
%
T
o
t
a
l
C
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
4 8 16 32
2X
every
7 yrs
Tinker, 2008 Natural Gas Forecast
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
Gl
o
b
a
l
E
n
e
r
g
y
C
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
(
q
u
a
d
s
)
32,500 TcF
Resources =
~ 200 years at
150 TcF year
Source: SPE Paper 68755,
National Petroleum Council, 2007
Tinker, 2008
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
U.
S
.
N
a
t
u
r
a
l
G
a
s
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(
B
c
f
)
Total Natural Gas
Conventional Gas
Difference
U.S. Natural Gas Production
Conventionals: EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
Unconventionals: 1970-1988 data from GRI, 1999. Updated data from 1989-2005 is from EIA, 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year An
n
u
a
l
N
a
t
u
r
a
l
G
a
s
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(
T
C
F
)
Gas Shales
Coalbed Methane
Tight Gas
Unconventionals
Tinker, 2008
Unconventional plays
•Marginal-quality reservoirs covering large areas
•Artificial stimulation required – usually fracture
treatments (“frac jobs”)
•Per-well reserves are relatively low, and play
success is sensitive to gas price
•Small well spacing
•Overall play production rate is very sensitive to
drilling rate
•Now a significant part of US gas production
(over 30%)
The Barnett Shale-Gas Play of the Fort Worth Basin: STARR Industry Seminar; November, 2006
Tinker, 2008
Unconventioinal Natural Gas
The Barnett Shale
Outline
Tinker, 2008
What is the Barnett?
•Mississippian age mudrocks
•Dark colored fine-grained lithologies
–Organic-rich siliceous mudstone, muddy
limestone, etc
•Widespread in Texas, up to 1100 feet thick
in Ft. Worth Basin
•More like a conventional source rock for oil
•Definitely not a conventional producing
zone!
The Barnett Shale-Gas Play of the Fort Worth Basin: STARR Industry Seminar; November, 2006
Tinker, 2008
FWB Barnett Stats (RRC)
January 2008
•7170 gas wells
•More than 3.2 TCF produced
•175 operators
Tinker, 2008
Barnett Play
annual production rate
200
600
400
Year
0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ye
a
r
l
y
B
a
r
n
e
t
t
g
a
s
p
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(
B
c
f
)
800
2010
Mitchell (and later Devon)
pioneer the play
100
300
500
700
900
3.6% of U.S. consumption
Tinker, 2008
Barnett Formation
Ten feet of slabbed core
from SW Wise Co,
Ft. Worth Basin
Photo from Steve Ruppel
Ft Worth Basin Barnett:
• Porosity - 0.5 – 6%
• Permeability –
in microdarcy range
• Fractures are present
but cemented with calcite
• Gas and oil:
• in fractures?
• adsorbed on kerogen
• in micro & nano porosity?
The Barnett Shale-Gas Play of the Fort Worth Basin: STARR Industry Seminar; November, 2006
Tinker, 2008
Orange
dots are
50 nm in
diameter
50 µm
Hu
m
a
n
H
a
i
r
Shale Gas Pores
Blakely Well, 7,111’
2 µm
Areas of higher
carbon content
SEM from Reed and Loucks
SEM of ion-cut surface
Tinker, 2008
Top Ten Barnett Operators, 2007
Fort Worth Basin
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Devon
XTO
Chesapeake
EOG
Encana
Burlington/C-P
Range
Denbury
J-W
Chief
2007 production through August, BCF
Source: RRC website BCF, 2007
Tinker, 2008 Ft. Worth Basin
25 mi
D
U
Llano
Uplift
Producing wells as of 11/2007
Fort
Worth Dallas
Waco
Austin
Tinker, 2008 Tarrant Co Completions (2008)
Tinker, 2008
Tarrant Co. IP’s
past 12 months
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 24 47 70 93 116 139 162 185 208 231 254 277 300 323 346 369 392 415 438 461
402 wells with reported IP rates
Average: 1.9 million cfd
Median: 1.8 million cfd
Highest 6.5 mmcfd
Tinker, 2008
Tarrant Co
2003-2005 Completions
Tarrant Cumul Gas vs IP
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
IP rate
C
u
m
u
l
P
r
o
d
Avg IP: 1.3 mmcfd
Avg Cumulative
Through Nov08:
708 million cf
Tinker, 2008
EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery)
•Median cumulative production for wells
completed in 2003 in Tarrant Co:
–536 million cf
–Nearly all were vertical wells
•Median cumulative production for
horizontal wells drilled in Tarrant in 2005:
–726 million cf
–All are horizontal wells
Tinker, 2008
Typical Well
•1 BCF reserves
•Peak rate of 700 mcfd
•Decline by year: 50%, 25%, 20%, 10%...
•Drilling $1 million, completion $750,000
•G&G $50,000
•Lease cost – variable
Tinker, 2008
Performance of Median Tarrant Co
Horizontal Well
Starts at over 2 million cfd
After 1 year, making 643 mcfd
(69% decline)
Chesapeake Bass 311 B, 545 million cf cumulative production
Tinker, 2008
Barnett Fracs
•Wells average 3500’ horizontal length;
range is 2700 to 4400 feet.
•3 to 7 stages, average 4 stages
•Total water per fraced well: 2.9 to 5.0
million gallons, avg 4 million gallons
•Total sand per fraced well: 1 to 2.8
million pounds, avg 2 million pounds
The Barnett Shale-Gas Play of the Fort Worth Basin: STARR Industry Seminar; November, 2006
Tinker, 2008 Barnett Frac Job
From Devon Energy, 2006
The Barnett Shale-Gas Play of the Fort Worth Basin: STARR Industry Seminar; November, 2006
Tinker, 2008
Urban Drilling
Long Beach